Medicane Ianos udara na Grčku: Očekuju se uraganski udari vetra i poplave

Medicane ili Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone jeste barički sistem niskog vazdušnog pritiska koji ima brojne fizičke sličnosti sa tropskim ciklonima, ali je obzirom na geografsko područje u kojem se javlja (Sredozemlje) znatno ograničen u razvoju i znatno manjih dimenzija naspram njegovih “jačih rođaka” u okeanu.

Državni hidrometeorološki Zavod Grčke dao je ime ovom Medicane-u “Ianos”, i on je već danas krajem dana zahvatio Kefaloniju i Zakintos. Dakle, ovaj ciklon razlikuje se od uobičajenih vantropskih ciklona za naše područje (pa tako i ostatka Evrope) prema tome što po svojoj strukturi i načinu formiranja znatno više podseća na tropske ciklone, odnosno ovaj ciklon poseduje toplo jezgro i uobičajeno “oko”.

Ovakvi sistemi u Sredozemlju obično se nazivaju “Medicane”, što je engleska složenica od reči Mediterranean Hurricane.

Prema projekciji numeričkih modela pritisak u centru ovog subtropskog ciklona spustiće se na oko 980hPa, a očekuje se da prema Safir-Simpsonovoj skali bude svrstan u kategoriju 1, što podrazumeva i konstantne vetrove brzine preko 120km/h.

Ovakvi sistemi nisu česta i uobičajena pojava, obzirom na veličinu morske površine u Sredozemlju, ali su ovakvi događaji već beleženi, a prethodni ovakav sistem formirao se 2018. godine, zvao se “Zorbas”, i imao je dosta sličnu putanju kao “Ianos”. Temperatura mora je poprilično visoka i sada iznosi od 26 °C do 27 °C u oblasti gde se nalazi ovaj subtropski ciklon. Podsećanja radi, preduslov za formiranje tropskih ciklona jeste da temperatura površine mora bude 25°C ili više.

Kako će Ianos uticati na vreme u Grčkoj?

Opasnost pre svega preti od orkanskih udara vetra sa brzinama i do 200km/h, ali i od katastrofalnih poplava na zapadu i jugu Grčke, zbog obilnih padavina za kratko vreme. Postojaće rizik i od pojave tornada, istočno i severoistočno od centra ovog subtropskog ciklona. Široko područje može imati preko 200mm vodenog taloga, dok se bliže centru Ianos-a očekuje i do 400mm akumulirane kiše u 36 sati.

Estofex najava

The cyclone has reached hurricane strength. It has strengthened significantly after widespread deep convection developed in all quadrants and its satellite representation is that of a hurricane with a number of spiral bands and occasional hints of an eye forming. Winds around the centre are estimated to have risen to near 35 m/s with higher gusts. The central pressure is estimated to be near 982 mb.
The cyclone has gradually moved eastward during the day, slightly faster than most model guidance, and is expected to be very close to the southern Ionian islands tomorrow morning at 06 UTC. By then, it should slow down and become almost stationary. Model guidance remains very divided about its fate, with some models like ICON let the cyclone disspate fully, whereas others, including GFS and ECMWF, predict it to move back onto sea to the south or even south-southwest. The forecast reflects the latter scenario.
The wind is picking up across the coastal area of western Greece, with Kefalonia airport reporting a 15 m/s south-easterly wind with gusts to 20 m/s at 1800 UTC. The southern Ionian islands of Kefalonia and Zakynthos will likely experience hurricane-force winds, with gusts likely in the 40-50 m/s (144-180 km/h) range, and possibly higher across the mountains. Winds of similar strength or only marginally weaker will be experienced along the coastline of the Gulf of Patras from Astakos via Patras to Pyrgos and possibly further south to Kyparissia.
A major risk with the cyclone are extreme amounts of precipitation and the attendant risk of flash flooding. Across large parts of the Peloponnese and Central Greece rainfall will exceed 200 mm, whereas near the cyclone’s centre more than 400 mm may accumulate locally as it stalls near the Gulf of Patras. Another area at risk of extreme precipitation and flash floods are the eastern slopes of the Pindus mountains, where strong easterly upslope flow of humid air is expected, and result in accumulations around or above 400 mm in some areas.
Finally, a risk of tornadoes exists with embedded convective storms east and northeast of the cyclone centre. The area of highest storm-relative helicity in the 0-1 km layer has gradually shifted a bit northward in the latest model guidance. Hence the threat now seems highest in a wide area surrounding the Gulf of Patras.

Nema sumnje da će u naredna 24h biti zanimljivo pratiti kretanje ovog Medican-a, i njegovu demonstraciju moći prirode u vidu fotografija i video snimaka u zapadnim i južnim predelima Grčke, i koji će na žalost izazvati stanje elementarne nepogode u delu ove države.